INO_TEL
Bureau of Credit Risk Estimation and Analysis

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Download Demo-version of logical software
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International Scientific School MASR



Useful papers

Our company can provide your bank the service on estimation and analysis of credit risk for natural or juridical persons. Today, only our company uses logical and probabilistic theory of risk with groups of incompatible events which differs sharply from usual scoring techniques. Our methodology is adequate to risk and surpasses in many parameters existing methodologies and meets "Basel II" Accord requirements of techniques of quantitative estimation of credit risks and Capital Adequacy.

Principal difference of technique is application of knowledge base about credits as a system of logical equations (instead of database), use of logical addition of events instead of arithmetical addition of scores or other indicators, adequate credit risk scenario, correct mathematical identification of credit risk model by statistical data.

The technique and special logical Software were developed by Professor E.D. Solojentsev and were being researched during 10 years. Working with banks, we obtained results with twice more accuracy, seven times more robustness and high transparency in identification of "bad" and "good" credits than other techniques. These results are stated in scientific publications.

Bureau "INO_TEL" renders service on estimation and analysis of credit risk for Banks and Credit Bureau (Loan Office).

Service consists in two parts:
1) Construction of credit risk model by bank's statistical data and analysis of risk model;
2) Estimation and analysis of credit risk of borrower and determination of price for the risk.

Information guarding - credit data and results of their estimation and analysis are presented in impersonal form (as a set of numbers).

Technique of risk estimation and Software. The logical and probabilistic (LP) risk theory with groups of incompatible events (GIE) and special logical Software are used. Every bank is individual because it gives credits to different borrowers in different districts of city or regions of country, various branches and business fields, and needs to have own credit risk models, which are constructed under own statistics.

Effectiveness of technique:

  • Twice more accuracy in estimation of credit risk;
  • Seven times more robustness (stability of risk estimation);
  • Absolute transparency in estimation and analysis of risk of one credit, set of credits of bank and risk model in comparison with scoring techniques on basis of linear and quadratic discriminant analysis, cluster analysis, neural networks, data mining methods, etc;
  • Possibility to manage by risk, changing asymmetry of the recognition of good and bad credits, number of parameters and grades, describing the credit.

Approbation. Logical and probabilistic technique of estimation and analysis of credit risks and special logical software were tested on data of European bank (1000 credits) and two Russian banks (500 credits for natural and juridical persons). The value of average credit risk was reduced from 10% to 5%.

Cooperation between Bureau "INO_TEL" and Bank are detemined by Agreement. Payment for order is performed by bank transfer of Bank's money on settlement account of Bureau.

Free trial. Bank can use free service during one month for adjustment of technology of data transfer and estimation of accuracy, transparency and effectiveness of constructed LP-model of credit risks.

Service cost. Service is paid for estimation and analysis of credit risk only. Service cost is 10.0 USD for credit of natural or juridical person. Final price is determined by agreement with Customer. Payment is performed when the Customer will get results of estimation and analysis of one or several credits.

Additional service. In addition, the agreement for following works can be concluded: training of bank staff, optimization of credit's description with choice of optimal numbers of parameters and grades for every parameter, adjustment of intervals for parameters (amount of credit, credit period, age of borrower, etc.), joint research in risk problem.


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Methodology

Know-How and Economic Effectiveness

Intellectual Property

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Contacts