INO_TEL

Know-How is Logical and Probabilistic Theory (LP-theory) of Risk with groups of incompatible events (GIE) and corresponding software. The defence of intellectual property is realized on basis:
1) Certificate of the Russian Federation about official registration of the Program for PC No 2006610004 "Logical and Probabilistic Estimation and Analysis of Credit Risks";
2) Publications in scientific russian and foreign journals and books (see literature).

Competitiveness. At present time LP-techniques and software for estimation and analysis of credit risks are absent. In the market there are scoring techniques and software for estimation of risk on basis of linear and quadratic discriminant analysis, neural networks and data mining, but they have worse characteristics of accuracy, robustness, transparency and solve the limited number of problems of analysis and management of credit risk.

Advantages in comparison with existing level:

• Twice more accuracy in estimation of credit risk;
• Seven times more robustness (stability of risk estimation);
• Absolute transparency in estimation and analysis of risk of one credit, set of credits of bank and risk model;
• Possibility to manage by risk, changing asymmetry of the recognition of good and bad credits, number of parameters and grades, describing the credit.

Approbation. Logical and probabilistic technique of estimation and analysis of credit risks ans software were tested on data of European banks (1000 credits) and two Russian banks (500 credits for natural and juridical persons).

Expected commercial effect is achieved due to essential reduction of bank's losses because of more accurate estimation of risk, reduction of price for risk of credit, increase of competitiveness of bank and general profit for society.